Survey Says 2011 is Housing Bottom

Most forecasters are predicting a 2011 turning point for the U.S. housing market, even after the March home prices double-dip news hit, according to the investment and risk management firm MacroMarkets. Robert Shiller, namesake of the closely-watched Case-Shiller Home Price Index, is co-founder and chief economist for MacroMarkets.

The New Jersey-based company polled 108 economists and real estate experts this month from BBVA Research, George Mason University, and Wells Fargo to gauge their predictions.

Nearly two-thirds of the panelists believe that 2011 is the “turning point” for the housing bottom, with the actual bottom hitting in the first quarter of 2011. Shiller pointed out that the consensus among the panelists would best be described as a forecast of price stability rather than a rebound. He said a “significant majority” of the panelists would label the end to the free-fall days as a crossroads for the U.S. market.

Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing director, said, looking at expected housing market performance through the five year period ending 2015, the most optimistic quartile of panelists projects 15.3 percent average price growth.

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